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|
7/8/2008
-The Current Market Sentiment |
|
We have mentioned earlier this week that The manufacturing data have come
after series of weak EU reports like the recent IFO weak figures which have
shown a struggling business climate in germane which could effect negatively
on the single currency which is already suffering a technical pressure
versus the greenback after forming another lower high at 1.575 after 1.5935
and 1.6023 putting technical downside pressure on the pair.
It looks that another hike is getting out of ECB table in this week ECB rate
decision meeting tomorrow and it should pay much attention to the growth
downside risks. Jean Cluade Trichet has said it clearly after the recent ECB
meeting when it has hiked by .25% in the face of the inflation to settle
price stability over the medium term when the oil prices were well above 140
by referring to the downside risks currently and the sluggish growth of the
second quarter after good data in the first quarter which can tackle further
tightening actions in appreciation of the growth down side risk which
triggered a profit taken wave after the hike and now it is getting better in
US and in my view the ECB can not go tighter than that before a realized
improvement in US if it is not a beginning of tightening back again in US
which can give a support to the greenback versus the single currency amid
the current oil and commodities prices easing.
And today event was Trichet's speech which has come exactly as expected.
Trichet has highlighted the growth down side risks by a serious talking
about the growth down side risks. In the same time he has tried to mention
that the ECB recent decision to hike interest rate by .25% was important to
avoid inflation second round effect and the ECB main job is to anchor
inflation and to settle price stability over the medium term in the Euro
zone. The single currency has tumbled across the broad with aggressively
after spiking on the release of the US weekly jobless claim which increased
this week to 455k. This dovish sentiment is expected to continue weighing on
the single currency which actually facing weak growth performance can be
prolonged to the rest of this year. Trichet has indicated in the ECB press
conference after its decision t keep interest rate unchanged at 4.25 that he
is to talk about the growth in a clearer way in the next meeting in
September.
Best
Wishes
FX consultant
Walid Salah El din
E-mail:
mail@fx-recommends.com |
Note
: Not Walid Salah El Din nor FX recommends accepts any liability for any loss or
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