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FX Recommends
We were the first to
represent FX trading consultancies and FX management services. We respect our
clients' minds. We always tell them about our reasons and the change of current
market sentiment and how this can change the best to buy and the best to sell.
Forex and CFDs are the most volatile markets, so you should be dynamic enough to
catch up with any change of the current market sentiment. Surely, we represent
our services with a simple style trying to help the beginners too.
You can watch now Walid Salah El Din's
last talking about Gold at
http://www.cnbcarabia.com/?p=48267
or at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7fFm5Zrp9c&feature=player_embedded
on 27/9/2012
You can also visit
http://www.cnbcarabia.com/?p=34821 or
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=JWzvsbQZF30
to watch his expectation of cutting the deposit rate by 0.25% to be zero
on the 4th of July 2012 a day before ECB's decision of doing so putting a strong
pressure on the single currency. These interviews at CNBC Arabia were in Arabic.
For watching the results after trading
US September 2012 Non Farm payroll release
click here
For watching what's running now
click here
For watching more results of 2012, you can
click here
You can always feel free to send mail@fx-recommends.com
asking for FX-Recommends free market
commentary
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16/5/2013 - The current Market
Sentiment ' Is the Fed is sticking to its policy or stuck in it?'
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You can find now the optimism of having a closer ending of the Fed’s QE
at the price of gold which is traded below 1400$ no per ounce after it had
been well buoyed following the credit crisis because of that policy which is
still underpinning the assets prices in US and you can see that also at the
current unprecedented prices in US equities market which pushed up the risk
appetite in Europe and Asia too while the treasuries are still also
well-supported watching markedly falling of its yields since the worries
about the US labor market has increased with the release of March labor
report which suggested continued support by the Fed to it and this stance
has not changed even after April report which came better than expected.
As the Fed is still tied to its confirmation of having this policy continued
with no pausing or cutting of its monthly scale of buying which is at $85B
currently till falling of the unemployment rate to 6.5% as long as the
inflation is still well-anchored in US as we have seen previously with the
falling of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge US PCE to 1% yearly in March
from 1.3% in February while the core PCE has shown continued inflation
easing pressure in March too by falling to 1.1% from 1.3% in February and
January, 1.4% in December, 1.5% in November and 1.6% in last October and
also we are waiting today by God’s will to see April US CPI rising as
consensus by only 1.3% from 1.5% in March to show that we are still away
from the 2.5% yearly level of inflation which can trigger staving off of the
QE policy as the Fed had referred too before and thus the investors had the
excuse to take more risk with no unwinding of their current positions but
loading more risk than what was planned by the Fed can push it to rethink
now about the stability of the financial markets as another important
boundary to its unprecedented easing monetary stance which is subjected to
be held for long time as it is not also well-known when the unemployment
rate can get down its required level with sequestrations in US while this
policy is keeping forward the looking for risks to be load bring back bad
assets again in the interest of the investors, Banks, Mutual Funds, too big
to fail ..
This processing with no control from the Fed can lead to a bubble again
exposing them to the risk of assets prices falling and with no more support
by the Fed with inflation rising probability fueled by these current rises
in the equities market not by the real demand by the main street, it will be
difficult to have the sustainable recovery path while the investments are
taking a hedge against the Fed’s pumping by buying assets.
From the other side, We have seen earlier that US Q1 GDP have grown too by
2.5% annually in the preliminary of it which was well below the market
expectation which was referring to rising by 3% because of continued falling
of the governmental spending has lead to falling of its buying by 4.1% y/y
after cutting by 7% in the fourth quarter of last year and with last march
deployed austerities, this rate is exposed to be get down with hardness to
find more achievement in the labor market this year as the household
spending will find difficulty to have the effect of the governmental
spending on GDP despite of its rising with withdrawing of the governmental
playing role and it will be hard to see picking up of the US real economy
with decreasing of the household spending too as the demand will be under
the risk of contraction again causing deflation risks and with no Fed’s
stimulating role the economic stance can exacerbate further.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El din
E-mail:
mail@fx-recommends.com
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Note
: Not Walid Salah El Din nor FX recommends accepts any liability for any loss or
damage what's ever that may directly or indirectly result from any advice,
opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or
otherwise, contained in these trading recommendations. please read the
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